Earth’s deep oceans may absorb enough heat at times to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade–even in the midst of longer-term warming. This according to a [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 20 Sep 2011

Earth’s deep oceans may absorb enough heat at times to flatten the rate of global warming for periods of as long as a decade–even in the midst of longer-term warming. This according to a new analysis led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

Excess energy entering the climate system due to greenhouse gas increases may not be immediately realized as warmer surface temperatures, as it can go into the deep ocean instead

The study, based on computer simulations of global climate, points to ocean layers deeper than 1,000 feet as the main location of the “missing heat” during periods such as the past decade when global air temperatures showed little trend.

The findings also suggest that several more intervals like this can be expected over the next century, even as the trend toward overall warming continues.

“We will see global warming go through hiatus periods in the future,” says NCAR’s Gerald Meehl, lead author of the study.

“However, these periods would likely last only about a decade or so, and warming would then resume. This study illustrates one reason why global temperatures do not simply rise in a straight line.”

The research, by scientists at NCAR and the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia, was published online Sunday in Nature Climate Change.

Funding for the study came from the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor.

“The research shows that the natural variability of the climate system can produce periods of a decade or more in which Earth’s temperature does not rise, despite an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations,” says Eric DeWeaver, program director in NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences.

“These scientists make a compelling case that the excess energy entering the climate system due to greenhouse gas increases may not be immediately realized as warmer surface temperatures, as it can go into the deep ocean instead.”

The 2000s were Earth’s warmest decade in more than a century of weather records.

However, the single-year mark for warmest global temperature, which had been set in 1998, remained unmatched until 2010.

Yet emissions of greenhouse gases continued to climb during this period, and satellite measurements showed that the discrepancy between incoming sunshine and outgoing radiation from Earth actually increased.

This implied that heat was building up somewhere on Earth, according to a 2010 study by NCAR researchers Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo.

The two scientists, who are both co-authors on the new study, suggested that the oceans might be storing some of the heat that would otherwise go toward other processes, such as warming the atmosphere or land, or melting more ice and snow.

Observations from a global network of buoys showed some warming in the upper ocean, but not enough to account for the global build-up of heat.

Although scientists suspected the deep oceans were playing a role, few measurements were available to confirm that hypothesis.

To track where the heat was going, Meehl and colleagues used a powerful software tool known as the Community Climate System Model, which was developed by scientists at NCAR and the Department of Energy with colleagues at other organizations.

Using the model’s ability to portray complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans and sea ice, they performed five simulations of global temperatures.

The simulations, which were based on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, indicated that temperatures would rise by several degrees during this century.

But each simulation also showed periods in which temperatures would stabilize for about a decade before climbing again.

For example, one simulation showed the global average rising by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) between 2000 and 2100, but with two decade-long hiatus periods during the century.

During these hiatus periods, simulations showed that extra energy entered the oceans, with deeper layers absorbing a disproportionate amount of heat due to changes in oceanic circulation.

The vast area of ocean below about 1,000 feet (300 meters) warmed by 18 percent to 19 percent more during hiatus periods than at other times.

In contrast, the shallower global ocean above 1,000 feet warmed by 60 percent less than during non-hiatus periods in the simulation.

“This study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean,” Trenberth says. “The heat has not disappeared and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences.”

The simulations also indicated that the oceanic warming during hiatus periods has a regional signature.

During a hiatus, average sea-surface temperatures decrease across the tropical Pacific, while they tend to increase at higher latitudes, especially in the Atlantic, where surface waters converge to push heat into deeper oceanic layers.

These patterns are similar to those observed during a La Niña event, according to Meehl.

He adds that El Niño and La Niña events can be overlaid on top of a hiatus-related pattern.

Global temperatures tend to drop slightly during La Niña, as cooler waters reach the surface of the tropical Pacific, and they rise slightly during El Niño, when those waters are warmer.

“The main hiatus in observed warming has corresponded with La Niña conditions, which is consistent with the simulations,” Trenberth says.

The simulations were part of NCAR’s contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5.

They were run on supercomputers at NCAR’s NSF-supported Climate Simulation Laboratory and on supercomputers at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility and the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, both supported by the U.S. Department of Energy.

Source: NSF

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon accelerated in June, with more than 300 square kilometers destroyed, a 17 percent increase over the previous month, government researchers said Tuesday.

Massive deforestation has made Brazil one of [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 04 Aug 2011

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon accelerated in June, with more than 300 square kilometers destroyed, a 17 percent increase over the previous month, government researchers said Tuesday.

Massive deforestation has made Brazil one of the world's top greenhouse gas emitters

The National Institute for Space Research (INPE) said 312.6 square kilometers (120 square miles) were destroyed in June, based on the preliminary analysis of satellite photos of the vast South American rainforest.

May had seen a decrease in deforestation to 268 square kilometers (100 square miles) from 477 square kilometers (180 square miles) in April.

In April, more than 400 square kilometers (150 square miles) of forests were destroyed in a single state, Mato Grosso, which is seen as a major agricultural frontier and is used for cattle ranches and soybean farming.

At the 2009 UN climate change summit in Copenhagen, Brazil committed itself to reducing Amazon deforestation by 80 percent by 2020.

Brazil, the world’s fifth largest country by area, has 5.3 million square kilometers of jungle and forests — mostly in the Amazon river basin — of which only 1.7 million are under state protection.

The rest is in private hands, or its ownership is undefined.

Massive deforestation has made Brazil one of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters, and the pace of deforestation peaked in 2004 at 27,000 square kilometers (10,000 square miles) a year.

By 2010, however, it had dropped to 6,500 square kilometers, thanks in part to the INPE’s Real-Time Deforestation Detection System (DETER), which allows researchers to collect new satellite images on a daily basis.

However, the system can only monitor areas of 25 hectares (60 acres) or more, so its results are not considered definitive.

AFP

WWF and Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker, today agreed to continue working together to further reduce the company’s greenhouse gas emissions and to help build hundreds of energy-efficient buildings – targets that will [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 24 June 2011

WWF and Lafarge, the world’s largest cement maker, today agreed to continue working together to further reduce the company’s greenhouse gas emissions and to help build hundreds of energy-efficient buildings – targets that will help fight the effects of climate change.

Lafarge has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels

As part of its ongoing partnership with WWF, Lafarge committed to further reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions by 33 percent per ton of cement below 1990 levels by 2020. This will be achieved by increasing the use of alternative fuels (such as biomass) and the efficiency of Lafarge’s plants.

In an innovative approach to sustainability, the company also pledged to be part of the development of 500 sustainable buildings across the globe by 2015, and to advocate for ambitious national and global climate change policies.

As part of its commitment, Lafarge will work with its customers, architects, engineering companies, designers and construction companies to develop new innovative technology platforms and new construction systems, which will be used in the energy efficient buildings.

“Working with companies like Lafarge is an essential part of our efforts to address climate change,” said Bruce Haase, Acting Head Climate and Business Engagement, WWF International. “By working with the corporations with the highest carbon footprint, you can have a significant and measurable impact. Lafarge will help advance our work to move the world to a low carbon society.”

“The partnership and the new commitments will also enable us to reinforce our policy work,” Haase said. “One of the biggest policy challenge we would like to engage Lafarge on, is moving greenhouse gas emissions reductions in the European Union from the current 20 percent target, to 30% by 2020.”

Lafarge and WWF have been working together for 10 years to reduce the company’s carbon footprint by improving its work practices and sustainability strategy. The company has been a member of WWF’s Climate Savers Programme since 2001 and has already exceeded previously set emissions reductions targets, leading to net emission reduction of 21.7% per ton of cement below 1990 levels in 2010.

“Lafarge is showing leadership by ensuring the targets cover all aspects of its work, from extraction to the construction of buildings, and including climate change policy”, Haase said. “In an industry that accounts for 6 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, this will have a measurable impact.”

The two partners have been working together on a progressively wider array of issues, ranging from greenhouse gas emissions reduction and forest restoration, to biodiversity, sustainable construction, water footprint and persistent pollutants.

Source: WWF

A delegation at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, represented the “very best capacity” in the country, the government said on Friday.

NGO GroundWork criticised the inclusion of Sasol and [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 22 June 2011

A delegation at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, represented the “very best capacity” in the country, the government said on Friday.

NGO GroundWork criticised the inclusion of Sasol and Eskom in the UN Climate Change Conference

It was reacting to criticism – levelled earlier this week by the NGO GroundWork – about the inclusion of representatives from petrochemicals giant Sasol and electricity utility Eskom in the delegation.

In a statement on Wednesday, GroundWork said the inclusion of Sasol and Eskom representatives “simply boggles the mind”.

“How can the two companies, who together account for the majority of South Africa’s emissions, and who do so profitably, be tasked with charting a low-carbon future for the country?”

The environment affairs department defended the composition of government’s negotiating team.

“The policy governing the composition of the South African delegation for all UN climate change meetings and conferences of parties is constituted with representatives of government, business, civil society, labour and Salga (local government) representatives, and also includes representative with specific skills, particularly from the South African scientific community.

“It must be noted that once a part of the South African delegation, representatives from sectors other than government operate under a strict code of conduct and discipline,” it said.

The basis for the inclusion of individuals in the team was they all represented the SA government, “not their respective organisations”.

The government’s view was the current team had been of benefit to the country’s negotiating position, the department said.

GroundWork was highly critical of both Sasol and Eskom.

“With plans to launch new coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids plants across the globe (including in India, China and Indonesia) 1/8and 3/8 lobbying for coal-to-liquids in the US Congress… Sasol is spending its revenues on polluting the planet with even more carbon dioxide.

“Eskom is currently under a major coal-fired generation expansion project, backed by the SA government, and is also spending billions on warming the planet.”

The NGO questioned the chances of the COP17 UN conference – set to be held in Durban later this year – resulting in a deal to reduce rising global greenhouse gas emissions, saying this seemed increasingly remote.

“Why? It seems that vested high-carbon emission interests are capturing the process. In effect, those who financially benefit from high carbon emissions, such as energy companies, are involved in the actual negotiations to reduce emissions,” it said.

GroundWork said that as COP17 host, the government needed to free itself from corporate influence.

“The South African government has a duty and obligation to protect the global environment and every individual, not to protect energy companies like Sasol and Eskom and their love affair with coal,” it said.

The Bonn conference ends on Friday.

- Sapa

Greenhouse gas emissions increased by a record amount last year, to the highest carbon output in history, putting hopes of holding global warming to safe levels all but out of reach, according to unpublished [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 30 May 2011

Greenhouse gas emissions increased by a record amount last year, to the highest carbon output in history, putting hopes of holding global warming to safe levels all but out of reach, according to unpublished estimates from the International Energy Agency.

Last year, a record 30.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide poured into the atmosphere

The shock rise means the goal of preventing a temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius – which scientists say is the threshold for potentially “dangerous climate change” – is likely to be just “a nice Utopia”, according to Fatih Birol, chief economist of the IEA. It also shows the most serious global recession for 80 years has had only a minimal effect on emissions, contrary to some predictions.

Last year, a record 30.6 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide poured into the atmosphere, mainly from burning fossil fuel – a rise of 1.6Gt on 2009, according to estimates from the IEA regarded as the gold standard for emissions data.

“I am very worried. This is the worst news on emissions,” Birol told the Guardian. “It is becoming extremely challenging to remain below 2 degrees. The prospect is getting bleaker. That is what the numbers say.”

Professor Lord Stern of the London School of Economics, the author of the influential Stern Report into the economics of climate change for the Treasury in 2006, warned that if the pattern continued, the results would be dire. “These figures indicate that [emissions] are now close to being back on a ‘business as usual’ path. According to the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's] projections, such a path … would mean around a 50% chance of a rise in global average temperature of more than 4C by 2100,” he said.

“Such warming would disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people across the planet, leading to widespread mass migration and conflict. That is a risk any sane person would seek to drastically reduce.”

Birol said disaster could yet be averted, if governments heed the warning. “If we have bold, decisive and urgent action, very soon, we still have a chance of succeeding,” he said.

The IEA has calculated that if the world is to escape the most damaging effects of global warming, annual energy-related emissions should be no more than 32Gt by 2020. If this year’s emissions rise by as much as they did in 2010, that limit will be exceeded nine years ahead of schedule, making it all but impossible to hold warming to a manageable degree.

Emissions from energy fell slightly between 2008 and 2009, from 29.3Gt to 29Gt, due to the financial crisis. A small rise was predicted for 2010 as economies recovered, but the scale of the increase has shocked the IEA. “I was expecting a rebound, but not such a strong one,” said Birol, who is widely regarded as one of the world’s foremost experts on emissions.

John Sauven, the executive director of Greenpeace UK, said time was running out. “This news should shock the world. Yet even now politicians in each of the great powers are eyeing up extraordinary and risky ways to extract the world’s last remaining reserves of fossil fuels – even from under the melting ice of the Arctic. You don’t put out a fire with gasoline. It will now be up to us to stop them.”

Most of the rise – about three-quarters – has come from developing countries, as rapidly emerging economies have weathered the financial crisis and the recession that has gripped most of the developed world.

But he added that, while the emissions data was bad enough news, there were other factors that made it even less likely that the world would meet its greenhouse gas targets.

• About 80% of the power stations likely to be in use in 2020 are either already built or under construction, the IEA found. Most of these are fossil fuel power stations unlikely to be taken out of service early, so they will continue to pour out carbon – possibly into the mid-century. The emissions from these stations amount to about 11.2Gt, out of a total of 13.7Gt from the electricity sector. These “locked-in” emissions mean savings must be found elsewhere.

“It means the room for manoeuvre is shrinking,” warned Birol.

• Another factor that suggests emissions will continue their climb is the crisis in the nuclear power industry. Following the tsunami damage at Fukushima, Japan and Germany have called a halt to their reactor programmes, and other countries are reconsidering nuclear power.

“People may not like nuclear, but it is one of the major technologies for generating electricity without carbon dioxide,” said Birol. The gap left by scaling back the world’s nuclear ambitions is unlikely to be filled entirely by renewable energy, meaning an increased reliance on fossil fuels.

• Added to that, the United Nations-led negotiations on a new global treaty on climate change have stalled. “The significance of climate change in international policy debates is much less pronounced than it was a few years ago,” said Birol.

He urged governments to take action urgently. “This should be a wake-up call. A chance [of staying below 2 degrees] would be if we had a legally binding international agreement or major moves on clean energy technologies, energy efficiency and other technologies.”

Governments are to meet next week in Bonn for the next round of the UN talks, but little progress is expected.

Sir David King, former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, said the global emissions figures showed that the link between rising GDP and rising emissions had not been broken. “The only people who will be surprised by this are people who have not been reading the situation properly,” he said.

Forthcoming research led by Sir David will show the west has only managed to reduce emissions by relying on imports from countries such as China.

Another telling message from the IEA’s estimates is the relatively small effect that the recession – the worst since the 1930s – had on emissions. Initially, the agency had hoped the resulting reduction in emissions could be maintained, helping to give the world a “breathing space” and set countries on a low-carbon path. The new estimates suggest that opportunity may have been missed.

By: Fiona Harvey
Source: The Guardian

Representatives from more than 30 countries are expected to hammer out a formal agreement for future discussions on forest and climate issues when they meet next month in the Republic of Congo, reports the [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 18 April 2011

Representatives from more than 30 countries are expected to hammer out a formal agreement for future discussions on forest and climate issues when they meet next month in the Republic of Congo, reports the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS).

Chainsawing an African mahogany tree in the Congo rainforest.

The summit, which will be held from May 31 through June 3 in Congo’s capital of Brazzaville, will be attended by nearly 500 delegates from tropical countries, donor nations, NGOs, and multilateral entities, including multiple branches of the United Nations. Representatives from countries that hold more than 80 percent of the world’s rainforests are expected to attend.

“This summit will be extremely important for the future of the world’s major rainforests,” said Henri Djombo, the Republic of Congo’s Minister of Sustainable Development, Forest Economy and the Environment, in a statement.

The summit aims to produce “a joint statement on tropical forests, climate, and sustainable development to feed into the future Climate Agreement in Durban, South Africa (COP, 17), and the Rio+20 Summit in Brazil,” according to WCS.

Forests are seen as key to any future climate framework since they offer a path for developing countries to contribute to greenhouse gas reductions. Deforestation and forest degradation presently account for more than a tenth of carbon dioxide emissions and are furthermore a leading threat to biodiversity. Protecting forests is therefore seen as an attractive strategy for fighting climate change. Industrialized nations are expected to fund these efforts via the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) mechanism.

Source: Mongabay.com

Ancient megadroughts that lasted thousands of years in what is now the American Southwest could offer a preview of a climate changed by modern greenhouse gas emissions, researchers reported on Wednesday.

A giant [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 24 February 2011

Ancient megadroughts that lasted thousands of years in what is now the American Southwest could offer a preview of a climate changed by modern greenhouse gas emissions, researchers reported on Wednesday.

A giant dust storm during the 1930s Dust Bowl.

The scientists found these persistent dry periods were different from even the most severe decades-long modern droughts, including the 1930s “Dust Bowl.” And they determined that these millennial droughts occurred at times when Earth’s mean annual temperature was similar to or slightly higher than what it is now.

These findings tally with projections by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and others, according to study author Peter Fawcett of the University of New Mexico. The results were published in the current edition of Nature.

“The IPCC model suggests that when you warm the climate, you’ll see extended droughts in this part of the world and this is what the paleo record seems to be telling us,” Fawcett said in a telephone interview. “When you’ve got past temperatures that were at or above today’s conditions, conditions got drier.”

The US Southwest has seen steep population growth over the last century, with population increasing by 1,500 percent from 1900 to 1990, according to the US Geological Survey. The total US population grew 225 percent over the same period.

The settlement of this area depended, as all human settlements do, on access to water. There would clearly be less water available in a megadrought.

Megadroughts in the past were caused by subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun, which were also responsible for periodic ice ages. If these orbital changes were the only influence on the planet’s climate, Earth should be heading into a cool period, Fawcett said in a telephone interview.

However, recent temperature statistics indicate that is not the case. The decade that ended last year was the hottest since modern record-keeping began in 1880. The previous decade, 1991-2000, was next-warmest and 1981-1990 was third-warmest.

Emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide help trap heat near Earth’s surface and could be influencing the natural orbital cycle that would dictate a cooling period.

To figure out just how long these megadroughts lasted, and what happened during them, scientists took samples from a dried lake bed in northern New Mexico called the Valles Caldera. They analysed these sediments for biochemical signs of drought, ranging from which trees and shrubs grew and how much calcium was in the cracked mud in the dried lake bottom.

Looking at records going back more than a half-million years, they also developed a technique to determine temperature in the ancient past by looking at signs left by soil bacteria, Fawcett said.

The fats in the walls of these bacteria change their structure in response to temperature changes, he said, and act like a “tape recorder” for antique temperatures.

- Reuters

New research shows that 2010 set new records for the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, expected to be a major contributor to projected sea level rises in coming decades.

The shocking rate [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 22 January 2011

New research shows that 2010 set new records for the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, expected to be a major contributor to projected sea level rises in coming decades.

The shocking rate of Greenland’s ice melt is a wakeup call

“This past melt season was exceptional, with melting in some areas stretching up to 50 days longer than average,” said Dr. Marco Tedesco, Director of the Cryospheric Processes Laboratory at the City College of New York (CCNY – CUNY), who is leading a project studying variables that affect ice sheet melting.

“Melting in 2010 started exceptionally early at the end of April and ended quite late in mid- September.”

The study, with different aspects sponsored by World Wildlife Fund (WWF), the US National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA, examined surface temperature anomalies over the Greenland ice sheet surface, as well as estimates of surface melting from satellite data, ground observations and models.

In an article published today in Environmental Research Letters, Dr. Tedesco and co-authors note that in 2010, summer temperatures up to 3°C (5.4°F) above the average were combined with reduced snowfall.

The capital of Greenland, Nuuk, had the warmest spring and summer since records began in 1873.

Bare ice was exposed earlier than the average and longer than previous years, contributing to the extreme record.

“Bare ice is much darker than snow and absorbs more solar radiation,” said Dr. Tedesco. “Other ice melting feedback loops that we are examining include the impact of lakes on the glacial surface, of dust and soot deposited over the ice sheet and how surface meltwater affects the flow of the ice toward the ocean.”

WWF climate specialist Dr. Martin Sommerkorn said “Sea level rise is expected to top 3 feet (36 inches) by 2100, largely due to melting from ice sheets.  And it will not stop there – the longer we take to limit greenhouse gas production, the more melting and water level rise will continue.”

A report published by WWF and Allianz in 2009, Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector, found that global sea level rise of just 20 inches, with an additional 6 inches localized rise along the northeast U.S. coast, could jeopardize assets worth close to $7.4 trillion.

“The shocking rate of Greenland’s ice melt is a wakeup call,” said Lou Leonard, WWF Managing Director of Climate Change. “Study after study is reaching the same conclusions: climate change is accelerating, the livelihoods of people and the habitats of species are becoming more stressed and the costs of doing nothing are piling up. Time is growing short, but we still have a chance to avoid the worst impacts and economic damages if we begin to phase out fossil fuels and transition to a clean energy economy today.”

Source: WWF

By 2030, climate change will indirectly cause nearly one million deaths a year and inflict 157 billion dollars in damage, according to estimates presented at UN talks on Friday.

Poor countries will face [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 04 December 2010

By 2030, climate change will indirectly cause nearly one million deaths a year and inflict 157 billion dollars in damage, according to estimates presented at UN talks on Friday.

Poor countries will face acute exposure to climate change

The biggest misery will be heaped on more than 50 of the world’s poorest countries, but the United States will pay the highest economic bill, it said.

“In less than 20 years, almost all countries in the world will realise high vulnerability to climate impact as the planet heats up,” the report warned.

The study, compiled by a humanitarian research organisation and climate-vulnerable countries, assessed how 184 nations will be affected in four areas: health, weather disasters, the loss of human habitat through desertification and rising seas, and economic stress.

Those facing “acute” exposure are 54 poor or very poor countries, including India. They will suffer disproportionately to others, although they are least to blame for the man-made greenhouse gases that drive climate change, it said.

“Without corrective actions” a press release accompanying the study said, the world is “headed for nearly one million deaths every single year by 2030.”

More than half of the 157 billion dollars in economic losses, calculated in terms of today’s economy, will take place in industrialised countries, led by the United States, Japan and Germany.

But the cost to their GDP will proportionately be far lower than for poor countries.

The peer-reviewed report was issued by DARA, a Madrid-based NGO, and by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a coalition of island nations and other countries that are most exposed to climate change.

Saleemul Huq, a researcher at a London-based thinktank, the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), said the findings spelled out the need to start shoring up defenses against climate change now, rather than later.

“We are now entering into a highly vulnerable phase of our planet’s existence and humanity’s existence,” Huq told a press conference.

“No amount of (greenhouse-gas) mitigation will prevent at least another 0.7 degree (Celsius, 1.26 degrees Fahrenheit) of temperature rise over the next two decades,” he said.

“In the last century we have already seen a 0.7 degree (1.26 F) rise. So we are headed for 1.4 (2.5 F) almost certainly.

“If emissions carry on their current pathway then we may in the longer term be headed for three or four degrees (5.4-7.2 F), which is practically impossible for everybody to adapt to.

“But at the lower level, we can do a lot by adapting to the impacts of climate change, to prepare for them.”

The November 29-December 10 talks in Cancun gather the 194 parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), tasked with crafting a deal to roll back global warming and its impacts after 2010.

Among the long list of problems they face is how to muster funds to tackle climate change — and decide how much of the money should be allocated for adapting to the threat, and how much to reduce carbon emissions.

So far, adaptation has been given far less priority than emissions mitigation, say campaigners.

“When you know your car has a brake problem, you do not sit around and talk about it. You fix it immediately before the kids get in,” commented Wendel Trio of Greenpeace.

“No one escapes from the climate crisis, old or young, rich or poor, unless we all act together now.”

Previous studies into climate vulnerability have been more narrowly focussed and have a longer timeframe, looking at, for instance, the risks by 2100.

By focussing on what happens in a couple of decades, the report has a better chance of swaying policymakers, as these events are likely to happen within their lifetime, said former UNFCCC chief Michael Zammit Cutajar.

-AFP

Farmers around the world are adopting new ways of producing food that both help cope with climate change and reduce farming’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new FAO website on ‘climate-smart’ agriculture published [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 07 November 2010

Farmers around the world are adopting new ways of producing food that both help cope with climate change and reduce farming’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new FAO website on ‘climate-smart’ agriculture published today.

Rice is the 2nd largest emitter of the greenhouse gas - methane

Burkina Faso’s Yatenga province is being reclaimed through the use of an improved version of traditional “planting pits” known as zaï – now lands which were once barely productive are achieving yields five times greater than before.

In northern Cameroon, traditional varieties of millet, sorghum and maize had low resistance to water scarcity and production there typically suffered in the face of lowered rainfalls and droughts. Starting in 2006, Cameroon’s national agriculture research institute developed improved varieties of these crops, and with support from FAO established farmer seed enterprises and got them into farmers’ fields, where today they are producing good yields in spite of unfavourable conditions.

In Mozambique, smallholder farmers are getting paid for sequestering carbon through the adoption of various agrofoestry practices and reducing deforestation and degradation of forest lands.

Farmers in Vietnam are being encouraged to use special “digesters” that transform farm waste into biogas used for daily cooking and lighting needs and also create nutrient-rich slurry for fertilizing fields.

And on Bohol Island, in the Philippines, improved infrastructure has helped improve water management and stabilized rice production, while rice farming techniques that use less water were introduced, stretching local supplies still further – and reducing production of greenhouse gases in the paddies.

“A shift to climate-smart agriculture helps advance several important goals: doing so will not only help shield farmers from the adverse effects of climate change and offer a way to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester atmospheric carbon, but can also improve farm yields and household incomes,” said Alexander Mueller, FAO Assistant Director-General for Natural Resources.

The rice example

The rice sector provides an example of how agriculture can adapt to meet the challenges of climate change.

Rice farming is one of the foundations of world food security – it produces a staple grain that is consumed by some three billion people every single day.

At the same time, however, rice farming is also the second largest emitter of the greenhouse gas (GHG) methane.

Methane is produced naturally in the warm, waterlogged soils of rice paddies. Research has shown that these emissions occur mainly when paddy ground is fully waterlogged – so changing the length of time they are flooded, draining them mid-season, or irrigating only intermittently can decrease methane emissions.

Similarly, while adding organic fertilizers like manure to water-filled paddies stimulates methane production, using them when paddies are drained dampens emissions.

Also, applying ammonium sulphate supplements can promote soil microbial activity and reduce methanagens, the earth-dwelling microorganisms that produce methane as a metabolic by-product.

According to the FAO report which forms the basis for the new website on climate smart agriculture, even as the rice sector needs to reduce its emissions, rice production also faces multiple challenges due to climate change.

Irregular rainfall, drier spells during wet seasons which can damage young plants, drought and floods are already affecting rice yields and have sparked outbreaks of pests and diseases, it says.

Rising temperatures, especially night temperatures, have already impacted on rice yields, causing losses of 10-20 percent of harvests in some locations in Asia over the last 25 years, new research shows.

Many governments and farmers are already taking action to reduce vulnerability to climate change, providing valuable lessons for future adaptation strategies, FAO notes.

Embankments have been built to protect farms from floods, and new drought and submergence tolerant varieties of rice are being produced and used.

Farmers are diversifying production, growing other cereals, vegetables, and rearing fish and animals, thereby increasing their incomes, improving household nutrition, and making their farms more resilient to shocks.

The development of advanced modelling techniques and efforts to map the effect of climate change on rice-growing regions are helping reduce communities’ vulnerability, as are efforts to increase the availability of and improve access to crop insurance.

FAO will continue to update the website on climate smart agriculture to highlight additional examples and case studies as well as lessons learned from around the world.

Source: FAO