It’s possible to reduce deforestation to near zero by 2020, but delaying action to save forests by even a decade means double the area of forests lost by 2030, says WWF.

Our forests [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 29 Nov 2011

It’s possible to reduce deforestation to near zero by 2020, but delaying action to save forests by even a decade means double the area of forests lost by 2030, says WWF.

Our forests are disappearing while we sort out how to save them

According to the latest chapter of WWF’s Living Forests Report, “Forests and Climate”, the world stands to lose 55.5 million hectares of forest between now and 2020, even if we take urgent action to reduce deforestation. If the world delays the necessary steps, we stand to lose 124.7 million hectares by 2030, according to the report.

These forests are not only vital to the well-being of people and wildlife, but also to the global climate, because deforestation releases greenhouse gases, says WWF. The report finds that reducing deforestation to near zero would also bring global emissions from forest destruction close to zero, but delaying this reduction until 2030 would mean sacrificing an additional 69 million hectares of forest worldwide and at least an additional 24Gt CO₂ into the atmosphere, not including losses from forest degradation or the carbon stored below ground. Currently, up to 20 per cent of global carbon emissions come from deforestation and forest degradation – more than the total emissions from the global transportation sector.

The report further finds that new plantations are not the solution, as they will not begin to sequester enough carbon to offset emissions from deforestation until 2040 at the earliest.

“Our forests are disappearing while we sort out how to save them,” said Bruce Cabarle, Leader of WWF’s Forest and Climate Initiative. “This continued loss of forests will have dire consequences for our global climate, for nature and for the livelihoods of billions of people. And we know we can’t plant our way out of the problem. The message is clear – we must act now to protect the world’s forests for good or we’ll lose them forever.”

According to WWF, United Nations climate talks, set to get underway this week in South Africa, provide a key opportunity for the world’s governments to unite on efforts to halt global forest loss. At these talks, details on a scheme in which developed countries pay developing countries not to cut down their forests will be agreed.

This effort, referred to as REDD+, is a unique opportunity to address both climate change and forest loss, and while considerable progress has been made on working out the details, governments must now commit to a global target for tackling deforestation at the scale and pace needed, said WWF. The Living Forests Report finds that achieving zero net forest loss by 2020 is not possible without REDD+.

“WWF understands that these climate negotiations are complex. But we must not let the opportunity that REDD+ presents slip through our fingers. If we get this right, we can safeguard our climate and help people overcome poverty. There is too much at stake to let these talks get mired down by technicalities,” said Gerald Steindlegger, Policy Director of WWF’s Forest and Climate Initiative.

WWF is asking global leaders to back an ambitious target of near zero forest loss by 2020. The Living Forests Report shows that this target is achievable through improved governance – sustainable land-use plans, law enforcement, improved land tenure systems, transparent and inclusive management, and markets that demand sustainable forestry and agriculture products.

Yet the report shows that in reaching this target, countries must adopt strong safeguards to protect the planet’s biodiversity and benefit local communities and indigenous peoples.

Given the urgency of halting forest loss, WWF is calling on governments to provide the needed finance to support REDD+ actions. Industrialized countries have a critical role to play in providing adequate, predictable and sustainable financing for REDD+. This report finds that $30-50 billion by 2020 is needed to reach near zero emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Though the sums needed appear large, delaying action will greatly increase the long-term costs of coping with climate change. While this public financing is essential, other sources of innovative financing, such as credit support for forest bonds, could be a way to leverage private-sector finance so that governments are not alone in efforts to scale up forest finance, according to WWF.

The Living Forests Report uses the Living Forests Model, developed for WWF by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), to consider a range of different forest scenarios for the next half century, modified by changes in diet, biofuels, conservation policy, and fuelwood and timber demand. The report concludes that achieving and sustaining Zero Net Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2020 (ZNDD) is possible if we act now. The report further finds that unless we act now to use REDD+ to successfully halt deforestation, the opportunity to keep global temperature rise well below 2°C will be lost. According to WWF, reaching an agreement on key elements of REDD+ is critical to saving forests and the climate, conserving biodiversity, and benefitting the well-being and livelihoods of people around the world.

Source: WWF

Polar bear cubs that swam long distances had a 45% mortality rate

Polar bear cubs forced to swim long distances with their mothers as their icy Arctic habitat melts appear to have a [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 19 July 2011

Polar bear cubs that swam long distances had a 45% mortality rate

Polar bear cubs forced to swim long distances with their mothers as their icy Arctic habitat melts appear to have a higher mortality rate than cubs that didn’t have to swim as far, a new study reports.

Polar bears hunt, feed and give birth on ice or on land, and are not naturally aquatic creatures. Previous reports have noted individual animals swimming hundreds of kilometres to reach ice platforms or land, but this is one of the first to show these swims pose a greater risk to polar bear young.

“Climate change is pulling the sea ice out from under polar bears’ feet, forcing some to swim longer distances to find food and habitat,” said Geoff York of World Wildlife Fund, a co-author of the study.

York said this was the first time these long swims had been quantitatively measured, filling a gap in the historical background on this iconic Arctic species.

To gather data, researchers used satellites and tracked 68 polar bear females equipped with GPS collars over six years, from 2004 to 2009, to find occasions when these bears swam more than 50km at a time.

Mortality rate

There were 50 long-distance swims over those six years, involving 20 polar bears, ranging in distance up to 685.6km and in duration up to 12.7 days, according to a paper for presentation on Tuesday at the International Bear Association Conference in Ottawa, Canada.

At the time the collars were put on, 11 of the polar bears that swam long distances had young cubs; five of those polar bear mothers lost their cubs during the swim, representing a 45% mortality rate, the study found.

Cubs that didn’t have to swim long distances with their mothers had an 18% mortality rate, the study said.

“They’re a lot like us,” York said in a telephone interview. “They can’t close off their nasal passages in rough waters. So for old bears or young bears alike, if they’re out in open water and a storm hits, they’re going to have a tough time surviving.”

Two factors make it even harder for polar bear cubs to weather long periods in Arctic waters, said Steve Amstrup, a former scientist at the US Geological Survey and now chief scientist at Polar Bears International, a conservation group.

“Young bears don’t have very much fat and therefore they aren’t very well insulated and cannot cope with being in cold water for very long,” Amstrup said in the same telephone conversation.

Because they are leaner than their parents, Amstrup said, “they probably aren’t as buoyant so in rough water they’ll have more difficulty keeping their heads above water”.

Greenhouse gases

The Bush administration listed polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because of the decrease in their Arctic ice habitat. That decision survived a legal challenge in June, and this month, Canada listed polar bears as a species at risk.

The Arctic is warming faster than lower latitudes due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the melting of sea ice in summer accelerates the warming effect.

Arctic sea ice extent – the area covered by sea ice – in June was the second lowest in the satellite record since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Centre.

- Reuters

Until now, scientists were uncertain about how much and where in the world terrestrial carbon is being stored. In the July 14 issue of Science Express, scientists report that, between 1990 and 2007, the [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 18 July 2011

Until now, scientists were uncertain about how much and where in the world terrestrial carbon is being stored. In the July 14 issue of Science Express, scientists report that, between 1990 and 2007, the world’s forests stored about 2.4 gigatons of carbon per year.

Boreal forests are responsible for 22% of carbon stored in forests

Their results suggest that forests account for nearly all of the world’s land-based carbon uptake. Boreal forests are estimated to be responsible for 22 percent of the carbon stored in the forests. A warming climate has the potential to increase fires and insect damage in the boreal forest and reduce its capacity to sequester carbon.

“Our results imply that clearly, forests play a critical role in Earth’s terrestrial carbon balance, and exert considerable control over the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide,” said A. David McGuire, co-author and professor of ecology at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Institute of Arctic Biology and co-leader of the USGS Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit.

The report includes comprehensive estimates of carbon for the world’s forests based on recent inventory data. The scientists included information on changes in carbon pools from dead wood, harvested wood products, living plants and plant litter, and soils to estimate changes in carbon across countries, regions and continents that represent boreal, temperate and tropical forests.

The authors note that understanding the present and future role of forests in the sequestration and emission of carbon is essential for informed discussions on limiting greenhouse gases.

Source: Physorg

Many fastest-growing cities, especially those in the developing world, stand to suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change, a new study reported on Thursday.

In cities, prolonged hot weather can exacerbate existing [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 08 April 2011

Many fastest-growing cities, especially those in the developing world, stand to suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change, a new study reported on Thursday.

In cities, prolonged hot weather can exacerbate existing levels of air pollution, causing health problems.

Few urban areas are taking the necessary steps to protect their residents – billions of people around the globe – from such likely events as heat waves and rising seas, according to research to appear in Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability and European Planning Studies.

They are also failing to cut their own emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases, the study found.

“Climate change is a deeply local issue and poses profound threats to the growing cities of the world,” study author Patricia Romero Lankao, a sociologist specialising in climate change and urban development, said in a statement.

Because half of Earth’s population is in cities, scientists like Romero Lankao are focusing on the potential climate change impacts in these areas.

Air pollution

The mere fact that they are cities, with densely packed construction, places their populations at greater risk from natural disasters, including those expected to be made worse by climate change.

Storm surges can inundate heavily populated coastal areas and heat waves can warm up paved cities more than surrounding areas, Romero Lankao found. And these events can be amplified in an urban environment.

In cities, prolonged hot weather can exacerbate existing levels of air pollution, causing health problems. Poorer urban neighbourhoods that lack reliable sanitation, drinking water or roads are at increased risk, according to Romero Lankao, of the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research.

The number of city-dwellers worldwide has quadrupled since 1950, the study found, projecting that by 2020, more than 500 urban areas will have a million residents or more.

But urban leaders are largely failing to prepare for coming natural disasters that could affect their people, including building public transport that would cut greenhouse emissions, Romero Lankao said.

“Cities can have an enormous influence on emissions by focusing on mass transit systems and energy efficient structures,” she said. “But local leaders face pressures to build more roads and relax regulations that could reduce energy use.”

She noted that some cities’ efforts to cut emissions are part of a larger push to ease traffic and other problems. She cited central London’s Congestion Charging Zone, which aims to encourage more use of public transit, as one example. In Latin America, Curitiba, Brazil, and Bogota, Colombia, are integrating new development with mass transit systems.

Romero Lankao’s study was conducted in association with the UN Human Settlements Program and funded by the US National Science Foundation.

- Reuters

2010 was the world’s hottest year on record, as was the past decade. These changes can be attributed to emissions of greenhouse gases related to human activity, says Alec Joubert, director of climate consultancy [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 24 February 2011

2010 was the world’s hottest year on record, as was the past decade. These changes can be attributed to emissions of greenhouse gases related to human activity, says Alec Joubert, director of climate consultancy Kulima Integrated Development Solutions.

In the Western Cape, higher winter temperatures are causing the quality of deciduous fruit crops to deteriorate

Climate change is an inconvenient truth, as former US vice-president Al Gore put it, but one that business and government ignore at their peril.

“We’re not just talking climate change, but major risks,” says Santam’s strategy unit head, Vanessa Otto-Mentz. The risks are many, ranging from food security to extreme weather events.

Driving climate change is global warming that “continues unabated”, warns US space agency Nasa , which reports that 2010 was the world’s hottest year on record, as was the past decade.

These changes can be attributed to emissions of greenhouse gases related to human activity, says Alec Joubert, director of climate consultancy Kulima Integrated Development Solutions. He adds that the outcome will depend on how much these emissions will grow or be cut. It is widely accepted that without major cuts the global average temperature will rise by up to 6°C by 2100.

The impact of climate change is already being felt in SA, says Deon Nel, a CSIR climate specialist. In the Western Cape’s Eden district, which includes Mossel Bay, George and Knysna, there has been a 2°C rise in average winter temperatures since 1940, he says. This is causing concern, in particular among hop farmers as it is affecting the crop’s growth. Elsewhere in the Western Cape, higher winter temperatures are causing the quality of deciduous fruit crops to deteriorate, says Otto-Mentz.

Average winter rainfall is also projected to decrease in the Western Cape as cold fronts shift further south, says Joubert. Cape Town, which is nearing the limit of its surface water, is assessing underground water sources.

All of SA will see rising temperatures, but inland areas will be the worst affected, says Nel. According to CSIR studies, given moderate to high growth in greenhouse gas emissions, the coast is likely to warm by around 1°C by 2050 and 3°C by 2100. The interior temperatures are expected to climb by about 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by 2100. SA’s current average annual temperature is 16,6°C.

Nel says these rising temperatures will have many consequences, including greater reliance on underground water, which will increase energy use. Joubert says the outlook for crops is one of more failures, which could approach one in two seasons in the 2090s if climate changes are as severe as some are predicting.

Putting it bluntly, Philip Thornton of the International Livestock Research Institute told a climate conference at Oxford University in 2009: “The prognosis for agriculture in sub- Saharan Africa in a five-degree [temperature increase] world is truly appalling.”

But climate change goes way beyond agriculture. Nel says rainfall intensity is likely to increase across SA, increasing flooding and infrastructure damage risk. The temperatures of the world’s oceans are also rising, ice masses are melting fast and sea levels are rising by 3,28mm annually, according to Nasa estimates. The threat to low-lying coastal areas is clear. Less obvious is a rise in the severity of weather-related events. “The increase in [coastal] storm activity and severity is likely to be the most visible impact [of climate change] and the first to be noticed,” warns the CSIR. Among the most vulnerable areas are Cape Town’s Table Bay, Saldanha Bay, Port Elizabeth and the developed areas of KwaZulu Natal’s coast. Santam CEO Ian Kirk says insurance risk is rising in a number of coastal areas.

Despite climate change’s dire consequences, annual UN conferences aimed at lowering emissions have achieved little more than promises from governments. At this year’s conference, to be held in Durban, the vested interests of the 193 UN member countries will again be competing with the need for a more binding legal agreement based on common sense.

By: Stafford Thomas
Source: FM

The aggressive wolverine may not be powerful enough to survive climate change in the contiguous United States, new research concludes.

It's highly uncertain whether wolverines will continue to survive.

Wolverine habitat in the [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 06 February 2011

The aggressive wolverine may not be powerful enough to survive climate change in the contiguous United States, new research concludes.

It's highly uncertain whether wolverines will continue to survive.

Wolverine habitat in the northwestern United States is likely to warm dramatically if society continues to emit large amounts of greenhouse gases, according to new computer model simulations carried out at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo.

“The researchers have combined regional-scale climate projections with knowledge of a single species and its unique habitat to examine its vulnerability to a changing climate,” says Sarah Ruth, program director in NSF’s Directorate for Geosciences, which funds NCAR.

“This study is an example of how targeted climate predictions can produce new insights that could help us reduce the impact of future climate change on delicate ecosystems.”

Climate change is likely to imperil the wolverine in two ways: reducing or eliminating the springtime snow cover that wolverines rely on for raising their young, and increasing August temperatures well beyond what the species may be able to tolerate.

“Species that depend on snow cover for their survival are likely to be very vulnerable to climate change,” says NCAR scientist Synte Peacock, the lead author of a paper reporting the study’s results.

“It’s highly uncertain whether wolverines will continue to survive in the lower 48, given the changes that are likely to take place there.”

Peacock’s research focused on mountainous regions of the Northwest, the primary habitat of the wolverine population in the contiguous United States.

Results of the study were published last week in Environmental Research Letters. The work was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR’s sponsor.

Wolverines make their home mainly in the boreal forests and tundra regions of North America, Europe and Asia.

Their thick oily fur insulates wolverines from frost, and large padded paws help them run through deep snow.

While some 15,000 or more wolverines may roam Canada, only a few dozen to a few hundred are believed to live in the contiguous United States, almost entirely in mountainous areas in Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Washington.

Wolverines inhabit regions that have late-season snow cover and relatively cool summer temperatures, with daily highs averaging 72 degrees Fahrenheit or less.

Female wolverines make their springtime dens in the snow, which provides warmth to the newborn kits, the proper name for wolverine young, and protects them from predators.

Biologists are doubtful that the species could survive in regions with little spring snow or significantly higher summertime temperatures.

To project the future climate in regions of the contiguous United States where wolverines live, Peacock analyzed results from new simulations carried out by a team of researchers at NCAR.

They used the newest version of the Community Climate System Model, developed by scientists at the Department of Energy and NCAR with colleagues at other organizations.

Peacock analyzed three scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions: low (carbon dioxide emissions stay at present-day levels until 2020, then decline to zero by the early 2080s); medium-low (emissions rise slightly until 2040, then decline sharply toward the end of the century); and high (emissions continue to increase unabated).

In the high emissions scenario, the computer simulations showed spring snow cover nearly or completely vanishing during the second half of this century in present-day wolverine habitat.

Similarly, spring snow cover in the medium-low scenario became greatly diminished, with many years experiencing zero snow cover.

Under the low emissions scenario, springtime snow cover conditions remained similar to those of the present day.

The computer projections also showed that August temperatures may increase dramatically.

August temperatures currently top off at about 90 degrees Fahrenheit in areas where wolverines live. But maximum daily temperatures by the end of the century were projected to exceed 90 degrees under the two higher-emission scenarios.

Unless the wolverine is able to very rapidly adapt to summertime temperatures far above anything it currently experiences, and to a spring with little or no snow cover, it is unlikely that it will continue to survive in the contiguous U.S. under a high or medium-low emissions scenario.

The model simulations also indicated the extent to which climate change may transform the West, where society depends on mountain snowpack for fresh water.

This critical source of water could decrease by a factor of three to four in Idaho, western Montana, and western Wyoming by the end of this century under the high emissions scenario.

Even under the medium-low emissions scenario, snowpack could drop by a factor of two to three in these regions.

Source: NSF

Wild horses have returned to northern Siberia. So have musk oxen, hairy beasts that once shared this icy land with woolly mammoths and sabre-toothed cats. Moose and reindeer are here, and may one day [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 30 November 2010

Wild horses have returned to northern Siberia. So have musk oxen, hairy beasts that once shared this icy land with woolly mammoths and sabre-toothed cats. Moose and reindeer are here, and may one day be joined by Canadian bison and deer.

Reintroducing herds of grazers to Siberia will turn the Tundra into grasslands

Later, the predators will come – Siberian tigers, wolves and maybe leopards.

Russian scientist Sergey Zimov is reintroducing these animals to the land where they once roamed in millions to demonstrate his theory that filling the vast emptiness of Siberia with grass-eating animals can slow global warming.

“Some people have a small garden. I have an ice age park. It’s my hobby,” said Zimov, smiling through his greying beard. His true profession is quantum physics.

Climate change is felt most sharply in the Arctic, where temperatures are warming faster than anywhere else on the planet. Most climate scientists say human activity, especially industrial pollution and the by-products of everyday living like home heating and driving cars, is triggering an unnatural warming of the Earth.

Crucial nourishment

On Monday, negotiators representing 194 countries open a two-week conference in Cancún, Mexico, on reducing greenhouse gases to slow the pace of climate change.

Zimov is trying to recreate an ecosystem that disappeared 10 000 years ago with the end of the ice age, which closed the 1.8 million-year Pleistocene era and ushered in the global climate roughly as we know it.

He believes herds of grazers will turn the tundra, which today supports only spindly larch trees and shrubs, into luxurious grasslands. Tall grasses with complex root systems will stabilize the frozen soil, which is now thawing at an ever-increasing rate, he said.

Herbivores keep wild grass short and healthy, sending up fresh shoots through the summer and autumn. Their manure gives crucial nourishment.

In winter, the animals trample and flatten the snow that otherwise would insulate the ground from the cold air. That helps prevent the frozen ground, or permafrost, from thawing and releasing powerful greenhouse gases. Grass also reflects more sunlight than forests, a further damper to global warming.

It would take millions of animals to change the landscape of Siberia and effectively seal the permafrost. But left alone, Zimov argues, the likes of caribou, buffalo and musk oxen multiply quickly. Wherever they graze “new pastures will appear… beautiful grassland”.

The project is being watched not only by climate scientists but by palaeontologists and environmentalists who have an interest in “rewilding”.

Icebound

“This is a very interesting experiment,” said Adrian Lister, of the Natural History Museum in London. “I think it’s valid from an ecological point of view to put back animals that did formerly live there,” he said. He disapproved of suggestions to rewild non-native species – for example, relocating elephants and rhinos to the American plains.

Zimov began the project in 1989, fencing off 160km² of forest, meadows, shrub land and lakes. It is surrounded by another 600km of wilderness.

It is an offshoot of the Northeast Science Station, which he founded and where he has lived for 30 years. Already icebound by October, the park is 40km inland from the station, accessible only by boat in summer and by snow vehicles after the rivers freeze.

A 32m tower inside the park gives constant readings of methane, carbon dioxide and water vapour. The data feeds into a global monitoring system overseen by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Zimov’s research on permafrost, greenhouse gas emissions and mammoth archaeology has attracted world scientists to his laboratories, a small cluster of cabins and a tiny chapel on a rocky bluff above a channel of the Kolyma River.

A 20-bed barge is used for field trips in summer, and a $100 000 hovercraft is on order. Zimov sometimes uses an old Russian tank to bring supplies from the Chinese border, 2 000km away.

Part of the station’s attraction – and deterrence – is its remoteness. It is 6 600km and eight time zones east of Moscow. The nearby town of Chersky, with some 5 000 people, has few amenities, and the nearest city, Yakutsk, is over four hours away, by plane.

Escape

Many researchers, particularly Americans, prefer to work in Alaska or northern Canada, which are more accessible.

“Most of the Arctic is in Russia, and yet most of the Arctic research isn’t,” said Max Holmes, of Woods Hole Research Centre in Massachusetts, director of the Polaris Project, which has sent undergraduates to the station for the last three years.

Zimov started the park with a herd of 40 Yakutian horses, a semi-wild breed with a handsomely long mane that is raised by Yakuts and other native people for their meat. Short, sturdy and broad-backed, they survive harsh Siberian winters with the help of a furry hide, thick layers of fat and the ability to paw through a metre of snow to forage.

Of his first herd, Zimov said 15 were killed by wolves and bears, 12 died from eating wild hemlock that grows in the park, and two slipped through the perimeter and made their way back some 1 000km to their original pastures.

But he bought more. Now the horses have learned to avoid poisonous plants and to resist predators. Over the last three years, more colts were born and survived than horses lost.

The challenge is to find the right balance between grazers and predators, and how to help his animals get through their first winters.

His workers still give occasional buckets of grain to the horses to supplement their diet with salt. About half the horses come regularly to the cabin where a caretaker stays year-round. The other half are rarely seen except for their tracks.

Hope

Zimov also has had problems with the moose that he brought inside his enclosure. Moose still live in small numbers in surrounding forests, and the males jump back and forth over the 2m fence.

In September he travelled to a nature reserve on Wrangel Island, about five hours by boat across the East Siberia Sea, and brought back six four-month-old musk oxen. One died a few weeks later. The others are kept in a small enclosure and fed hay until they can fend for themselves.

His objective is to see whether a thriving population of grazing animals will regenerate grasslands that disappeared long ago, which would slow and even halt the accelerating pace of permafrost thaw. So far, he said, the results are encouraging.

Today he has 70 animals in the park. He wants thousands to restock Siberia. To bring 1 000 bison from North America would cost $1m, a small price to pay, Zimov said.

“If permafrost melts, 100 gigatons of carbon will be released this century,” he said. “What’s $1m? One regular grant.”

- AP

What could be the worst drought on record has hit the Amazon region, and is the third extreme drought in the last 12 years.

The Rio Negro reached an all time low in [...]]]> Posted by: Saving Water SA (Cape Town, South Africa) – partnered with Water Rhapsody conservation systems – 24 November 2010

What could be the worst drought on record has hit the Amazon region, and is the third extreme drought in the last 12 years.

The Rio Negro reached an all time low in October 2010

Recent research findings suggest rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will rapidly increase the frequency and severity of droughts in the region, with ominous implications for nearly 8.7 million people, including the biodiversity and climate.

In 2005 the Amazon experienced an extreme drought that prompted the government of Brazil to declare a state of emergency in most of the region. This drought was notable for its impacts on the global carbon cycle.

According to the University College London (UCL) Global Drought Monitor, exceptional droughts should not occur more than a couple of times in a century, yet large areas of the Amazon experienced exceptional drought in October this year.

Most of the Amazon region received less than 75% of normal rainfall between 1 July and 30 September, with many large areas receiving less than 25% of normal.

Among the consequences of the drought are extremely low flows on many of the region’s rivers. On 24 October 2010, the Rio Negro, a major tributary of the Amazon, reached an all time low of 13.63m at Manaus.

Just like the 2005 drought, the 2010 drought was preceded by an El Niño.

The possibility of increasingly arid conditions along with more frequent extreme droughts in the Amazon is a matter of growing and grave concern.

Source: WWF

Scientists found that a decline in the Sun’s activity did not lead as expected to a cooling of the Earth – a surprise finding that could have repercussions for computer models on climate change.

Study showed that during a waning [...]]]> Posted by: Yes Solar Cape (Cape Town, South Africa) – 07 October 2010

Scientists found that a decline in the Sun’s activity did not lead as expected to a cooling of the Earth – a surprise finding that could have repercussions for computer models on climate change.

Study showed that during a waning phase solar radiation increased

The Sun’s activity is known to wax and wane over 11-year cycles, which means that in theory the amount of radiation reaching Earth declines during the “waning” phase.

The new study was carried out between 2004 and 2007 during a solar waning phase.

The amount of energy in the ultraviolet part of the energy spectrum fell, the researchers found.

But, contrary to expectation, radiation in the visible part of the energy spectrum increased, rather than declined, which caused a warming effect.

The investigation, based mainly on satellite data, is important because of a debate over how far global warming is attributable to Man or to natural causes.

Climatologists say that warming is overwhelmingly due to man-made greenhouse gases – invisible carbon emissions from coal, gas and coal that linger in the atmosphere and trap solar heat.

But a vocal lobby of sceptics say that this is flawed or alarmist, and point out that Earth has known periods of cooling and warming that are due to variations in the Sun’s output.

“These results are challenging what we thought we knew about the Sun’s effect on our climate,” said lead author Joanna Haigh, a professor at Imperial College London where she is also a member of the Grantham Institute for Climate change.

“However, they only show us a snapshot of the Sun’s activity and its behaviour over the three years of our study could be an anomaly.”

Insisting on caution, Haigh said that if the Sun turned out to have a warming effect during the “waning” part of the cycle, it might also turn out to have a cooling effect during the “waxing” part of the cycle.

In that case, greenhouse gases would be more to blame than thought for the perceptible rise in global temperatures over the past century.

“We cannot jump to any conclusions based on what we have found during this comparatively short period,” Haigh said. “We need to carry out further studies to explore the Sun’s activity, and the patterns that we have uncovered, on longer time scales.”

The study is published in Nature, the weekly British science journal.

- Sapa-AFP

International efforts to protect the ozone layer-the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays-are a success and have stopped additional ozone losses and contributed to mitigating the greenhouse effect, according to a new report.

The [...]]]> Posted by: Yes Solar Cape (Cape Town, South Africa) – 17 September 2010

International efforts to protect the ozone layer-the shield that protects life on Earth from harmful levels of ultraviolet rays-are a success and have stopped additional ozone losses and contributed to mitigating the greenhouse effect, according to a new report.

The "hole" is actually a depletion of ozone concentrations in the stratosphere.

The executive summary of the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2010 provides new information about the effects of climate change on the ozone layer, as well as the impact of ozone changes on the Earth’s climate.

The report was written and reviewed by some 300 scientists and launched on the UN International Day for the Preservation of the Ozone Layer. It is the first comprehensive update in four years.

The report reaffirms that the Montreal Protocol is working. “It has protected the stratospheric ozone layer from much higher levels of depletion by phasing out production and consumption of ozone depleting substances.”

Given that many substances that deplete the ozone layer are also potent greenhouse gases, the report says that the Montreal Protocol has “provided substantial co-benefits by reducing climate change.” In 2010, the reduction of ozone depleting substances as a result of the Montreal Protocol, expressed in CO2-equivalent emissions (about 10 Gigatonnes per year), were five times larger than those targeted by the first commitment period (2008-2012) of the Kyoto Protocol, the greenhouse emissions reduction treaty.

The report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says that an important remaining scientific challenge is to project future ozone abundance based on an understanding of the complex linkages between ozone and climate change.

Changes in climate are expected to have an increasing influence on stratospheric ozone in the coming decades, it says. “These changes derive principally from the emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide, associated with human activities.”

Source: UNEP